That’s not to say that the forecasters didn't wildly underestimate many of Trump’s ultimate margins of victory. Take Ohio, for instance, where Trump was leading Clinton by more than eight points on Wednesday morning: an average of four pre-election estimates predicted he'd win by a mere 1.6-point margin. [...]
As a result, no individual forecaster can claim an “A” grade for Nov. 8. That said, FiveThirtyEight could arguably take home an honorable mention for its relatively more Republican-bullish outlook. The site's founder Nate Silver even received a Twitter apology of sorts from the Huffington Post's Ryan Grim, who over the weekend had savaged him for "putting his thumb on the scales." [...]
As this table shows, prediction market aggregator PredictWise correctly projected the winner in 42 of the 46 states called as of Wednesday morning, for a 91.3 percent accuracy rate. Five others matched this record, including FiveThirtyEight, the New York Times' UpShot model, the Huffington Post, Bing Predicts, and the Cook Political Report. When looking at Senate races, PredictWise correctly called 29 out of 31 races so far, a track record also mirrored elsewhere. (This count excludes the California Senate race, where two Democrats faced off.) As for the House, PredictWise managed to correctly predict the partisan makeup of nine out of every ten House delegations, based on those seats called so far.
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