Ukraine regularly accused Russia of political intimidation by cutting energy supplies in the years leading to the 2014 annexation during disputes that Moscow said were commercial.
Now Belarus is experiencing something similar. Since the start of this month, Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft has been pumping about 40 percent less oil to Belarus than in the second quarter of this year. [...]
A high-level-Russian energy industry source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the understanding in the industry was that Lukashenko is being punished for his overtures to the West and critical comments directed at Russia. [...]
"The Belarussian establishment and Lukashenko personally were scared by the situation with Ukraine," said Andrei Yegorov, the director of Minsk-based think tank the Centre For European Transformation.
Lukashenko declined to recognize Crimea as part of Russia, and put on hold discussions with Moscow about the Russian military establishing an air base on Belarussian soil. [...]
His diplomacy paid off in February this year when the EU ended sanctions that had been in place for five years. Belarus is now in discussions with the International Monetary Fund about a $3 billion loan.
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