Most of the biggest betting firms and exchanges in the U.K., Ireland and beyond place a 60 percent or better chance on David Cameron averting a so-called Brexit. That’s even after five polls published this week showed the “Leave” side ahead, with the latest survey giving it as much as a 7 percentage-point lead over “Remain.”
“Pollsters ask people what they feel on a particular day; we are predicting what they will actually do on June 23,” said Jamie McKittrick, head of sports trading at Ladbrokes Plc. “Historically, we have seen a late swing to the status quo, especially among the undecideds.” [...]
The key reason for bookies’ confidence is a tendency for undecided voters to swing back to the incumbent as voting day approaches. In the final weeks of the 1995 campaign on Quebec’s independence, polls showed separatists gaining the lead, before a last-minute shift saw them defeated. Similarly, late polls in Scotland in 2014 put independence campaigners ahead, before voters ultimately opted to remain with the U.K.
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