12 May 2018

Politico: Federica Mogherini: Iran nuclear deal will hold

The Italian diplomat will meet with the foreign ministers of Germany, France and the United Kingdom — the three European powers that brokered the nuclear deal along with the EU, U.S., China and Russia — in Brussels Tuesday to discuss the future of the agreement. The European diplomats will also meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

Europeans are seeking to demonstrate that they can still deliver most of the economic benefits Tehran was promised in exchange for giving up its nuclear weapons program and allowing a robust system of international inspections, as well as persuade European companies active in Iran not to abandon their deals out of fear of being penalized by the U.S.

In her speech, Mogherini took several shots at Trump, though she did not mention the U.S. president by name, saying: “It seems that screaming, shouting, insulting and bullying, systematically destroying and dismantling everything that is already in place, is the mood of our times. While the secret of change — and we need change — is to put all energies not in destroying the old, but rather in building the new.

America Magazine: Controversy over L.G.B.T. Knight highlights tensions at Catholic colleges

The episode is the latest in a years-long struggle for colleges and universities affiliated with the church to balance support for increasingly diverse student populations while adhering to church teaching, which holds that same-sex relations are sinful, even if identifying as gay or lesbian is not. [...]

Father Guevin asked Mr. Keyes to resign his post, citing the possible scandal he would cause by continuing to serve in leadership. In an email to America, Father Guevin said that scandal is “an action that can lead to confusion and doubt regarding the church’s teaching.” [...]

Some students felt that some of Mr. Mattson’s claims are unsupported by science and fail to represent recent developments in the church’s attitude toward same-sex relationships. They wrote to the campus newspaper claiming the university was being hypocritical by calling its L.G.B.T students “beloved” while restricting them from inviting speakers with opinions that do not conform to the teachings of the church. [...]

Last month, Marquette University in Milwaukee stood behind its L.G.B.T. students when a Catholic group called for the administration to cancel a “Pride Prom” event held on campus. Crux reported that the university supported the event and issued a statement saying the U.S. bishops have “expressed that there is no room for discrimination in the Catholic Church, and we will continue to make progress through inclusivity.”

The Daily Beast: How Iran Could Beat Trump at His Own Game

The United States is not a significant source of trade or investment for Iran. Being unable to sell or buy directly from the United States will not have a big impact on the Iranian economy. The problem for Iran is the so-called secondary sanctions—the inability of non-American companies to access the American market or use the U.S. banking system if they do business with Iran.

But, secondary sanctions are a game that two can play. The European Union collectively has an economy larger than that of the United States. China, also a party to the JCPOA, is the world’s second largest economy. If the United States can use secondary sanctions on European and Chinese businesses to promote its foreign policy objective of hurting Iran, the Europeans and Chinese can retaliate with secondary sanctions aimed at preserving the agreement.

Iran might reasonably work with Europe, China and Russia to foil U.S. secondary sanctions. Such arrangements might even enhance the economic value of the nuclear deal to Iran since many European companies were unwilling to invest in Iran under the JCPOA because of remaining (not nuclear related) U.S. sanctions. [...]

There was nothing that Macron wanted to accomplish more than to persuade Trump to stay in the Iran deal. He failed as he said for U.S. domestic reasons  (i.e. Trump’s obsession with humiliating his predecessor). Indeed, Macron has nothing to show for his cultivation of Trump—not on the environment, trade, or anything else.  Almost certainly, he will now try a different tack. With the United States itself isolated, the French president is the natural leader of Europe and the free world. And to accomplish Europe’s objectives, Macron will now likely chart an independent course. And, almost certainly part of that will be to find ways to keep Iran in the JCPOA.  

Deutsche Welle: With Emmanuel Macron, the EU still has a chance

When he says that the EU cannot afford to be weak given the challenges it faces on the domestic and foreign policy fronts, it is immediately obvious. The EU has to act in order to renew itself, and it has to act now. This is Macron's core theory. And the EU must not be afraid. In saying this, Macron was also directly appealing to those EU citizens who are wavering and losing heart. Solidarity among people within the bloc must be restored, he said, whether on economic issues or on migration. Nationalism must be warded off, and a multilateral world order must be established. Macron sees himself as the alternative to the president of the United States. He is the European anti-Donald Trump. [...]

Macron's proposals are concrete; Merkel's are still vague. She promised this would change at the EU summit to be held at the end of June. Germany and France also agree that the EU ought to play a greater foreign policy role — especially in the Middle East. The Iran deal must be upheld as best it can. Merkel repeated her statement that Europe could no longer rely on the US as a guarantor for defense and security.

In his speech, Macron the European once again made it crystal clear that there will be a price to pay for the continuing development of the EU. Germany must relinquish its opposition to a transfer union. France must give up its resistance and be prepared to accept EU treaty changes, i.e. be prepared to take a democratic risk.

Bloomberg: Theresa the Delayer: May's Secret to Surviving in Brexit Britain

The minister’s colleague was more sanguine. May has survived so long by avoiding confrontation and would continue by finding a compromise that enables both sides to declare victory.

At least part of May’s strategy appears to be more procrastination: An inner cabinet meeting was canceled Thursday, and another scheduled on Tuesday is now uncertain. Meanwhile, lawmakers wonder when they’ll get the chance to vote on key pieces of Brexit legislation. Two have been on pause since February, and May has now put her flagship EU withdrawal bill on ice. [...]

Debates in the House of Commons on May’s Brexit laws, when they come, are likely to expose her predicament even further -- she’s stuck between a likely majority for a customs union, and the more than 60 lawmakers in her Conservative Party threatening to derail her government if she goes for one. [...]

Delaying to apply pressure would anger her lawmakers, but this is where May’s capacity for long-suffering helps. With the Conservatives divided on Brexit, neither wing of the party is keen to remove her in case they like her replacement even less. Surrounded by critics and undermined by her Cabinet, May stays for as long as she can stand it.