First the established opposition parties will be emboldened by his win. The opposition is now in control of cities accounting for almost 70% of Turkey’s GDP. Nine out of the 10 biggest urban areas in the country will be ruled for the next five years by a mayor linked to the opposition, the exception being the industrial province of Bursa. The opposition will have the opportunity to dismantle and then restructure the patronage networks that have helped the AKP to establish itself so successfully at the helm of Turkish politics. [...]
More importantly, Sunday’s result is likely to lead to a rethink by the AKP leadership. The shock must be momentous. It is surely the most severe interruption in Erdoğan’s electoral winning electoral streak. The future of Turkish politics will depend on how this result will be interpreted by Erdoğan himself and the lessons that this experienced and able politician will draw from this reversal of his political fortunes.
At stake may be the future of the AKP’s alliance with the Nationalist Movement party (MHP). One conclusion could be that this coalition has become too constraining for Erdoğan. For instance, the overhyped nationalism influencing the conduct of Turkish foreign policy is a byproduct of this political arrangement and so is the hardline approach to the Kurdish question both domestically and in Syria. Even more importantly, the political leadership may be compelled to question the benefit of the extreme centralisation of power ushered in by the transition to a presidential system a year ago. For a majority of the Turkish population, the presidential system does not seem to be functioning as advertised.
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