21 June 2019

Politico: Is Putin Losing the Trust of Russians?

Every year, Russian President Vladimir Putin stars in a big show, an hours-long televised question-and-answer marathon in which the president hears the people’s complaints, promises to tackle their problems and explains his views on a wide range of subjects. With more than a million questions submitted, organizers can choose carefully. But there was a hitch with this year’s annual extravaganza. On Thursday, somehow, the wrong questions got on the air—like one that flashed on the screen, “Only one question: When will you go away?” [...]

Putin remains firmly in command, without an imminent threat to his rule. But recent events now suggest a possible tipping point: On a number of fronts, at home and abroad, Putin has faced embarrassing failures, and the population, disenchanted, has lost trust in him, becoming restless enough to challenge his authority boldly. At the very least, this is a trying time for the Russian president. Retrospectively, we may find that it marked the end of his peak power—the results of which would surely reverberate across the world. [...]

Meanwhile, the Russian economy, though out of recession, is barely growing. The economic boom that fueled Putin’s popularity faded after oil prices collapsed years ago. Living standards are falling, and the government’s efforts to curb expenses have sparked a furious reaction. Ever since last year’s move to raise the retirement age to just below the life expectancy of the average Russian man, Russians have been protesting with more fervor. Anti-corruption activists, despite repeated arrests, find their message resonating with protesters too. It’s easier to tolerate the sight of Putin’s friends becoming billionaires when your life is improving. Not now. While Putin’s bold moves across Russia’s borders once boosted Russians’ sense of patriotism, the cost of foreign adventures is taking a toll on family budgets. [...]

The economic stagnation is eroding Putin’s once-stratospheric approval ratings. The leader who strode bare-chested across Siberia is now trusted by just 31.7 percent of Russians, according to state pollster VTsIOM, down from more than 71 percent in 2015, after the Crimea invasion. (After that 31.7 percent was reported earlier this year, the Kremlin demanded an explanation. The pollster revised its methodology, and the poll leapt back to 72 percent.) Putin’s approval rating, a slightly different measure, remains at 60 percent—respectable but sharply lower than his near-90 percent a few years ago.

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