A decision to turn the screws on Phnom Penh would mark just the fourth time the EU has implemented trade sanctions for human rights reasons — Myanmar, Belarus and Sri Lanka having been downgraded in the past. [...]
There is every sign that Hun Sen will make a public show of strength, and only make discreet concessions later. Last year, shortly after a furor over his move to declare a rival party illegal, he even publicly dared the European Union to sever the preferential trade access. “Cut it!” Hun Sen said in a speech, declaring that he would not become a “dog acting only for a bone or a piece of meat.”[...]
In total, EU tariffs would affect 40 percent of all of Cambodia’s exports, incurring a cost of $676 million, according to government estimates. In 2017, Cambodia exported €5 billion worth of goods to the EU, the vast share of which consisted of garments, footwear and agricultural products such as rice.[...]
Facing the prospect of a humiliating loss, Hun Sen declared his primary political opposition illegal and had his main rival, Kem Sokha, arrested and spirited away to a remote prison on the Vietnamese border. He has also banned over 100 other opposition members from politics, shut down independent newspapers and threatened or jailed human rights workers.
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