When the international community imposed sanctions on the late Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein from 1990 to 2003, next-door Jordan was exempt. The United Nations excused Jordan from sanctions that banned it from buying oil from Iraq, for instance. So there’s a strong precedent for exempting Iraq from the Iran sanctions. [...]
Even Abadi, who is considered to be more pro-American than his predecessor, cannot afford to comply with sanctions. He has been backpedaling since last week. On August 13, he said: “I did not say we abide by the sanctions, I said we abide by not using dollars in transactions. We have no other choice,” the prime minister told reporters in Baghdad. [...]
Second, Iraq’s water supplies are dependent upon the flows of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers from where it gets 98 percent of its surface water. If it chose to do so, Iran could divert 13 percent of Iraq’s water resources. Iraqi Deputy Water Minister told Gulf News in April that 20 to 30 percent of the Tigris River’s water in Iraq originates in Iran. If Iraq complies with sanctions, Iran could easily cut the flows of water, as it already has done in the northern Kurdistan area in Sulaimaniyah province, according to the Kurdistan regional government’s Ministry of Agriculture. At a time of serious drought in Iraq, this is no idle threat. [...]
Iran has political leverage, too. Since the May 12 national election, Iraq’s political elites have been unable to form a government in part because of enormous pressure from Tehran to install politicians in their favor. If Iran’s loyalists succeed and dominate the new government, Iraq’s rulers will definitely make decisions that support Iranian interests.
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