One commits the U.K. to leaving the EU’s VAT area after Brexit. Some experts say this all but guarantees a hard border in Ireland, undermining the whole purpose of May’s compromise Chequers plan. Charles Grant, the director of the Center for European Reform, said: “Unless we stay in EU’s VAT area, we cannot avoid a hard border.”
For their part, the EU will not sign any withdrawal agreement that does not guarantee an open border in Ireland. No withdrawal treaty means no deal, which means no Brexit transition period and the U.K. crashing out of the European Union in March 2019. [...]
Brexiteers believe the amendment kills off the prime minister’s plan, which they hate, which in turn means the backstop becomes more important to the EU because it might actually be needed. No. 10 denies this, but that was the Brexiteers’ purpose. [...]
By siding with Brexiteers instead of Tory Remainers, May avoided a Euroskeptic rebellion, but united the pro-European wing of her party with Labour. One minister was clear about the tight spot the government is now in: “I don’t have any insight, other than it’s a big f***ing problem.”
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