In JAMA Network Open, Goodwin confirms the correlation is real, at least for a sample mostly aged over 65. In the 693 counties with opioid prescriptions well above the national average, Trump scored almost 60 percent of the vote, compared to less than 39 percent in the 638 counties with rates significantly below average. A weaker, but still substantial, correlation was found between opioid use and voting for Republican congressional candidates. There was virtually no correlation, however, between presidential vote and insulin prescription, indicating the relationship is not about medical service. [...]
High unemployment, rural status, and education were all predictive of both opioid use and Trump voting. As to the other third of the relationship, Goodwin speculated to NPR the destruction of community opioid over-prescription induces may have driven a desperation for change. "That can lead to a sense of despair. You want something different. You want radical change."
Just last week, a study found the opioid crisis is only one facet of what has been dubbed “deaths of despair” including suicide and alcohol-related deaths. Perhaps voting for Trump is another symptom of this lack of hope, a theory supported by previous studies showing swings from Romney to Trump were highest where life expectancy has fallen. However, where taking drugs to numb the pain is self-destructive, the consequences of a presidential vote has the capacity to cause far wider pain.
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