For the past two weeks, waves of mass protests have engulfed several of Iraq's southern governorates, spreading from Basra all the way to the capital, Baghdad.
Summer protests are a fairly regular feature of the Iraqi political calendar, as the unbearable heat brings the public's long-simmering grievances to boiling point. However, this year's protests will likely cause Iraq's political classes more concern than usual.
The root causes and triggers of the ongoing protests are not that different from previous years: lack of basic services (especially electricity shortages), corruption, and unemployment. In addition to the infernal heat, this summer has been marked by unprecedented water shortages. The ensuing public anger was exacerbated by 15 years of remarkable levels of waste and theft. [...]
The reduction of violence, the retreat of identity politics and the relative stabilisation of the state have brought Iraq's systemic failures into sharper focus. In the absence of existential struggles and civil war, Iraqis finally got some breathing space that has allowed them to demand more from their corrupt political elites. [...]
There is no guiding ideology to be overturned, no Leviathan to tear down and no singular authoritarian figure whose demise might signal a structural shift in the governing order. Rather than revolutionary climaxes, Iraq is far more likely to witness gradual change through a recurring cycle of political and economic pressures leading to protests and riots that, in turn, meet a combination of force and piecemeal reforms. Indeed, elements of just such a dynamic have been in evidence since 2011 and more so since 2014.
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