Political analyst Francesco Galietti, sitting in his elegant Rome office boasting designer furniture, offers a more sober analysis of the situation. He attaches great importance to the role of the financial markets. Galietti used to work as a consultant for Italy's Ministry of Economy and Finance. He says "the markets are waiting for a signal indicating a robust fiscal policy and against leaving the eurozone. Snap elections and the uncertainty they entail would be a very bad signal." He thinks an anti-establishment coalition could calm markets provided it does not decide to drastically increase spending. Investors, argues Galietti, expect the new government to have a proactive strategy for reducing Italy's national debt.
Unlike some in the European Union, Galietti is not worried Italy will bring the eurozone to its knees. "I don't think [the populists] will create a disaster. Some have this fear that Salvini wants to provoke a crash. But I don't believe that." However, he says, the confrontation is getting out of control. He says it's now "the Palazzo versus the people," by which he means President Mattarella, whose official residence is the Palazzo del Quirinale, and who, at least on paper, should be impartial and not embroiled in a fight with Italy's populists.
Galietti says that if you want to provoke a political confrontation, then you need an enemy, but because Berlusconi has been sidelined politically and the Social Democrats have brought about their own demise, the populists are now turning to Mattarella. "He took the situation nuclear because he has brought a potential referendum on the euro into the realm of possibility," says Galietti. He drew comparisons between the current political climate in Italy and Brexit. But in the case of Italy, the outcome could be even worse, "because Italy is in the eurozone," he says.
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