The US decision on Iran is often seen in Manichean terms of whether Trump pulls out of the agreement or not. This is partly because Trump, unlike his predecessor, does not believe his political base warms to nuance. A president who communicates in 280 characters does not trade in shades of grey. [...]
He says it is possible for the EU to pass legislation stating that any US sanctions on European entities trading with Iran are null and void. The EU did much the same in protest at the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act passed by the US Congress in 1996. The EU passed a blocking statute, arguing as a matter of principle that it was wrong for the US to impose sanctions that had an extra-territorial effect.
But this is largely uncharted territory. It would broaden an EU-US foreign policy dispute into a transatlantic economic confrontation. Only EU banks with no interests in the US are likely to take the risk that the bloc can protect them from massive fines imposed by the US Treasury. The residual anti-Iran sanctions currently in force have already put a chill on nervous EU companies from trading with Iran. [...]
Europe’s chances of acting as an honest broker between Trump and Iran also depend on moderates holding sway in Tehran. Nephew said: “[The Iranian president, Hassan] Rouhani is already starting to take an awful lot of heat for the technocrat who failed, technically.
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