It is not clear what Netanyahu was hoping to achieve with his presentation. His skepticism about Iran’s intentions and its commitment to the nuclear agreement is well known. Those hoping for a smoking gun of Iran’s cheating on the deal it signed with world powers to curb its nuclear program were likely to be disappointed. The fact that Iran was at one point pursuing nuclear weapons will likely be a surprise to no one—and indeed was a rationale for concluding the nuclear agreement in the first place. Many of the slides Netanyahu showed pertained to the period between 1999 to 2003, when the U.S. has also cited evidence of an Iranian nuclear-weapons program, and after which a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate said the program had been shut down. His main evidence that Iran had cheated on the nuclear deal was that it had not fully disclosed the details of its past nuclear programs to the International Atomic Energy Agency as required by the nuclear deal. [...]
As to the Obama-era nuclear agreement itself, President Trump has it “the worst deal in history.” Although his advisers, as well as his European allies, had hoped to persuade him to remain in the JCPOA, arguing it was achieving what it was intended to do—preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon—French President Emmanuel Macron told French media last week, after his visit to Washington, that he believed Trump “will get rid of this deal on his own, for domestic reasons.” Trump has until May 12 to decide. Netanyahu’s speech could help give him a rationale to withdraw—or, should he want to save the deal, give him wiggle room to reimpose nuclear sanctions without fully withdrawing. [...]
And the Israeli-Iranian confrontation goes beyond diplomacy. Fearful that Iran is seeking a permanent military presence inside Syria, Israel has struck several times inside the country—most recently, apparently, Sunday night, after which at least 22 people were reported killed. There was no claim of responsibility for that strike, though that was not the case earlier this month when Israel struck a military base, the T4 base, inside Syria where Iran is known to operate, reportedly killing 14 people. Israel says Iran uses the base to transfer weapons to Hezbollah. Israel also struck the base in February after an Iranian drone launched from the base entered Israeli territory. Tehran has so far done little to retaliate.
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