Netanyahu himself has been hoping for regime change since 2002, when he mistakenly predicted an invasion of Iraq would have a spillover effect on Iran leading to regime change. [...]
While sanctions have had modest success in bringing adversaries to the negotiations table – most notably the Iran nuclear deal, democracies have tried and failed using sanctions to topple authoritarian regimes nearly 60 times between World War I and 2000, according to a long-term study. Examples range from Cuba and Panama to North Korea, Libya and Iran. [...]
In most cases, the sanctions are lifted without achieving the desired effect. In some cases, partial success is achieved – sanctions are lifted in exchange for important, albeit partial, concessions by the regime under pressure. That is precisely what happened with Iran – in other words, the West extracted as much if not more from Iran than any other sanctions campaign in history. [...]
In some ways, Iran was already on a path to regime change. As the Iranian people saw how their leaders squandered the benefits of the lifting of sanctions on military exploits abroad, discontent was growing. It’s not for nothing that Iranian President Hassan Rohani leaked the budget that showed increases in military spending on the backs of social expenditures in order to mobilize the public to push for social reform. The Islamic regime’s legitimacy was beginning to slip away.
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