Surging oil prices mean the big Arab countries of the Gulf — especially Saudi Arabia — look set to gain financially as well as politically from U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal. [...]
Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, said Saudi Arabia’s ambitious reform program, which aims to create jobs and new industries while curbing a huge state budget deficit, could benefit. [...]
The impact on Iran’s oil exports will depend on how buyers in Asia and Europe react to U.S. sanctions, which may not be clear for months. But analysts estimate Iranian oil production could drop by between 300,000 and one million barrels per day from about 3.8 million barrels per day. [...]
The U.S. move threatens Iran with lower export income and less access to hard currency. Analysts expect oil exports to remain higher than they were before 2016, so the economy may muddle through, but banks’ problems mean a financial crisis is not impossible.
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