For many outside observers, the situation is an easy puzzle to be solved. Just give Catalans more autonomy in exchange for renouncing their efforts to achieve independence. But that would be a gross mistake. Autonomy is not the solution; it’s part of the problem. [...]
Most political parties in Spain, both right and left, are strongly attached to the centuries-old project of building a centralized unitary state mirrored on France. Any concessions obtained by Catalonia would be perceived as an intolerable step in the wrong direction. Thanks to the support of a demographic majority in the country, these parties would be able to block or neutralize any advance in autonomy that Catalans are able to extract on paper.
At the same time, an increase in administrative or financial autonomy is not going to satisfy a majority of Catalans. Many would feel bitterly disappointed that their struggle has brought them back to the same cage they were trying to escape from. They would perceive Spain’s concessions as insubstantial, as long as the central state and the largely hostile demographic majority it represents remain in control. [...]
In my opinion, Spain will have to accept that Catalonia has a right to self-determination, while Catalonia will have to accept that such a right will require a reinforced, two-thirds majority in a referendum to be effectively exercised.
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