The Soviet death toll was so devastating—almost 27 million by official count, 60 times more than America or Britain—it triggered what demographers call a “wave” of population troughs and crests that will continue to undulate for generations, amplified by the upheavals that followed the collapse of communism in 1991. [...]
After hovering near 144 million for a decade, Russia’s population is once again shrinking, threatening Putin’s economic goals for the next six years. Even the recent addition of 2.3 million Crimeans won’t be enough to offset an expected 28 percent plunge in the number of women of prime childbearing age by 2032. [...]
While fertility rates are falling worldwide and several former communist states in Europe are facing larger population declines, no major country shares Russia’s vast discrepancy in the size of its age groups. Census data show there are about 70 percent more Russians in the oldest bracket of workers, 55 to 59, for example, than in the youngest, 15 to 19. By comparison, the gap is about 30 percent in Japan and less than 10 percent in both the U.S and the U.K. [...]
Without bold initiatives, the country may go from being one of the least indebted major economies to one of just six where age-related expenses push net debt past 250 percent of gross domestic product over the next three decades, according to S&P Global Ratings. The new monthly stipend for first-time parents may encourage procreation, but little can alter the current contraction in the workforce.
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