29 April 2018

Bloomberg: A Brexit Choice Between Bad and Worse

Staying in the European Union's customs union after Brexit, or joining some specially tailored version of it, would leave the U.K. with a worse deal than the one it currently enjoys as a full member of the EU. All Remainers think so, and a good many Leavers would probably agree. Proposing such an outcome comes close to admitting that the whole Brexit project has gone wrong. It has gone wrong — but, understandably, that's something May and her colleagues are unwilling to say. [...]

The problem is that a customs union stops the U.K. from striking new deals of its own, negating one of the main supposed benefits of Brexit. Worse, Britain would be bound by EU trade deals with third parties, despite having no vote on them, and no guarantee of sharing in the reciprocal benefits the deals would confer on EU partners. Membership in the EU is already unpopular with roughly half the country. Such a grossly asymmetrical arrangement would be even more toxic. [...]

Exactly how this catastrophic failure of leadership will be resolved is hard to say. No forthright pro-EU candidate for the highest office has emerged in either party. The country seems exhausted, and calls for a second referendum to reverse the Brexit choice are falling on deaf ears. Nothing short of a major political crisis seems capable of breaking the collective paralysis.

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