23 March 2018

FiveThirtyEight: Who Should Pay For Climate Change?

That very sea wall is at the heart of the court case — The People of the State of California v. BP P.L.C. et al. — that was the reason for Wednesday’s spectacle. The cities of Oakland and San Francisco are suing the five biggest fossil fuel companies on the planet — BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell — for billions of dollars for past damages and to prevent future flooding from sea level rise. Since the companies extracted fuel that altered the planet, the argument goes, they should pay for the consequences. It’s a modern version of “you break it, you buy it.” The oil companies have filed to dismiss the lawsuit on many grounds, including that it’s the government’s job to set and enforce carbon dioxide levels — not theirs. [...]

But in this polarized moment, a public tussling over the basics of climate science, however cursory, is anything but boring. And as each side in the case presented a history of climate change science, it was striking just how much the two sides agreed on: Climate change is happening, and humans are in large part responsible. But that’s not really what this court case is about. Rather, it’s about who knew what and when, how much uncertainty there is around future predictions and who should be held responsible (and liable) for a future with higher seas and more extreme weather events. That’s where the cities’ and corporations’ use of evidence diverged. [...]

The year after the most recent IPCC report was published was the hottest on record, Wuebbles told the court. Then 2015 topped 2014, and 2016 topped 2015. Temperatures are going up, precipitation is increasing, extreme events are more frequent. Looking at a broader set of years, sea level has risen around the San Francisco Bay. Alsup asked Wuebbles whether he disagreed with Boutrous’s recounting of the science.

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