5 March 2018

Business Insider: Theresa May only has two Brexit options left: Capitulation to the EU or a second referendum

His position — that Britain will eventually win a soft Brexit package from the EU — is a common one among analysts and economists in The City's investment banks. They believe no government could survive the economic damage of a hard Brexit. [...]

"So how will the current deadlock be broken? The chances of the EU conceding ground remain ultra-slim. Its economy is motoring, while cutting the U.K. a good deal would risk fuelling separatist movements elsewhere. It can run down the clock, waiting for the U.K. to capitulate as the cliff-edge draws nearer." [...]

"The PM, meanwhile, will stick to her unworkable proposals for as long as she can. Later this year, however, Mrs. May must decide, and we expect her to opt to keep Britain tied to the EU with a customs union. This would solve the Irish question and minimise the administrative and economic disruption. It is also the only plan that can command a majority in parliament." [...]

It's an extraordinary scenario, and it is essentially speculation on Tombs' part. What makes it significant is that, outside parliament and the Westminster media echo chamber, this is how the smart money sees Brexit playing out.

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