President Muhammadu Buhari, 75, will have the advantage of incumbency which, in Nigeria, is not to be taken lightly. Since 1999, when Nigeria returned to civilian rule, a sitting president has lost at the polls only once. It happened in 2015 when Buhari’s All Progressives Congress (APC), succeeded in defeating then-incumbent Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). It was Buhari’s fourth run for the presidency and snagging that election win was far from easy. It required a complex and uneasy marriage of several political parties and interests. [...]
But while the president seems undecided, he’s already facing high-profile opposition. In a 3,500-word open letter published in national dailies, Olusegun Obasanjo, Nigeria’s president from 1999 to 2007, pointedly asked Buhari not to seek re-election citing his weakness in “understanding” the economy as well as foreign and internal affairs. Some of the opposition to Buhari’s re-election bid has come from within his party. Even closer to home, Aisha Buhari, the first lady, has retweeted messages which criticized the president and suggested he’s not in control of his government. [...]
Buhari’s popularity in the north is such that if he chooses not to contest, he will still play a pivotal role in the elections by throwing his weight and popularity behind APC’s candidate. But with his plans for the election still under wraps, presidential hopefuls in the party are keeping their cards close to their chest. Should he choose not to contest however, there’s a slim chance vice-president Yemi Osinbajo might be the party’s ticket-bearer. He’s already won plaudits (paywall) during his stint as acting president while president Buhari was away on medical leave.
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