2 February 2018

Bloomberg: Richer Poles Are Bad News for Denmark Facing Labor Shortages

Despite a progressive tightening of immigration rules by the center-right government of Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, foreign workers have continued to trickle in and now account for nearly a tenth of the Scandinavian country's labor force, with eastern Europeans making up a sizable chunk of that, according to estimates by Nordea Bank AB, the region's largest lender. [...]

The arrival of about 80,000 foreign workers since 2013 helps explain why Danish inflation remains subdued despite half a decade of negative rates. According to Helge Pedersen, Nordea's chief economist in Denmark, annual wage growth could have been as much as 4.5 percent without them, compared with the actual rates of around 2 percent seen over the past five years. 

Poles, Romanians, Bulgarians or Czechs have been able to look for jobs around the continent since joining the European Union, which guarantees the free  movement of its workers. But years of EU membership – and the subsidies that come with it -- are now bringing the intended rewards to much of eastern Europe. Nordea notes that unemployment in Hungary or the Czech Republic is now at "post-communist lows," while salaries in Poland have doubled since the start of the millennium, says Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency. [...]

In November, the Confederation of Danish Industry said that nearly four out of 10 of its member companies were struggling to find qualified employees. This week, the Confederation of Danish Employers added its voice to calls for the government to attract foreign workers, citing estimates that suggest one in four firms in the construction industry are having to turn down orders because they can’t hire enough people. But the truth is that all kind of workers are needed across many sectors of Danish business.

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