Merkel has kept her hold on power for 12 years by occupying the political middle ground, sticking to pro-European policies and finding partners to govern with who broadly shared that outlook. But the days of steady, stable coalition-building in Germany are over, hastened by the refugee crisis of 2015-16 that upended the political landscape. A fragmented parliament, acrimonious partisan standoffs and factional fighting over migration within Merkel’s bloc make Berlin look more like Rome or Washington these days. With the Social Democrats still wavering and the pro-market Free Democratic Party having pulled out of previous coalition talks, only Merkel’s bloc is showing it wants to govern. Yet its worst election result since 1949 makes her more dependent than ever on a coalition partner to govern with a reliable majority in parliament. It’s a paradox with no obvious solution, neither for Merkel nor any other political leader. [...]
Polls suggest Merkel remains popular with the public and has strong backing among party leaders, with no obvious successor in sight. She has a record of humbling and outlasting enemies, including in her own party. Lindner may be the latest victim. Since he walked out of coalition talks in acrimony, support for the Free Democrats has fallen to as little as 8 percent, compared with 10.7 percent in the federal election, while his own approval ratings nose-dived. It’s a warning to other would-be challengers as his gamble looks to have failed. [...]
Merkel, 63, dodged a bullet on Sunday when the Social Democrats voted to pursue talks on governing with her Christian Democratic Union-led bloc. While it isn’t the final step, just getting there underscores her perseverance and determination. If she gets a coalition deal with the SPD, her stamina, command of policy details and “step by step” mantra -- ridiculed as a lack of vision by critics -- will have carried the day again. She remains the head of Europe’s biggest economy, the most experienced leader of the G-7 nations, and a formidable negotiator. Whether her domestic opponents get the better of her now, as they must surely do one day, it would be a foolish adversary who wrote her off just yet.
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