While researchers from the University of Birmingham admit it’s difficult to predict the likely long-term impacts of Brexit, they were able to quantify the shares of regional and national GDP and labor income (both in the UK and the EU) that are at risk due to Brexit. As such, researchers found that the Midlands and Northern England (the UK’s economically weaker regions) are particularly vulnerable. In contrast, London and Scotland were far less at risk.
Brexit highlighted deep divides within the UK. While Scotland and London voted to remain in the EU, Northern England and the Midlands, as well as Wales, voted to leave. The study’s finding echo previous research that found that Wales and northeast are among the areas most vulnerable to loss of funding, bad trade agreements, and a shortage of European workers. In short, these areas, which voted to leave the EU, are worst exposed to the economic impact of Brexit. [...]
The UK’s exposure to Brexit is some 4.6 times greater than that of the rest of the EU as a whole. The study estimates that 12% of UK GDP is at risk of Brexit trade-related consequences, compared with 2.64% of EU GDP. The study also notes that if the UK were to leave the EU without a beneficial trade deal in place, or with a deal in which the UK’s access to the block is severely restricted, it would be left in a far more damaging position than the rest of the EU.
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