Let’s take an imaginary step into an alternate near future, one in which the U.K.’s two largest parties have reshaped themselves along Brexit allegiances. Labour has finally abandoned its ambivalence and swung fully behind Remain. It opposes Brexit at every turn. The Tories, meanwhile, have doubled down on Leave and given up any attempt to lure back soft Remainers [...]
For a start, the political map looks completely different. Based on Chris Hanretty’s estimates of how constituencies voted at the 2016 referendum, the Conservative Party now finds itself in a much, much stronger position, with a majority of around 150. This is because of how the larger number of Leave votes are distributed more widely across Britain’s political map, whereas the smaller number of Remain votes tend to be concentrated in a smaller number of seats.
Across the country, old rules are overturned. The Tories run riot through a large swathe of Labour territory in northern England and Wales, where they were once a toxic brand. Their new leader, Jacob Rees-Mogg, sets out on a celebratory tour, driving through the more than 120 former Labour seats in his vintage 1968 Bentley. [...]
Meanwhile, Labour has finally called a truce with the Scottish National Party and cemented its takeover of London and middle-class enclaves. The party also reaches into parts of the southeast and southwest, including David Cameron’s old seat of Witney. But Labour is firmly out of power. [...]
For the foreseeable future, both parties will have to walk a tight-rope, carefully crafting their messages to pander to uncomfortable coalitions of Remainers and Leavers. As a result, nobody is likely to end up feeling terribly satisfied with what’s on offer.
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