Foreign Policy: Xi Jinping Has Quietly Chosen His Own Successor

Throughout the Western press, the removal of Sun Zhengcai was treated as conclusive proof that Xi plans to remain in charge after 2022, when term limits and political tradition will require him to give up power. This has been a common trope in the hazy world of Chinese political analysis since at least 2015, when Foreign Policy published “Xi Jinping Forever,” arguing that the Chinese leader would try to extend his rule beyond two terms. A constant stream of articles, especially in the run-up to this week’s 19th National Congress of the Communist Party, has reinforced the consensus that Xi Jinping isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. [...]

Xi has more than half a dozen allies in positions of power throughout China’s provinces — like Li Qiang, the Mongolian Bayanqolu, or Li Xi — any one of whom could have been named as Sun’s successor in Chongqing. But Xi’s choice was striking: He promoted his ally Chen Miner, who was born in 1960. Why is his year of birth so important? Because, based on the traditional retirement age of 68, Chen Miner — unlike Xi’s other prominent allies, who are older — will be able to serve out a double term from 2022, when he will be 62. Were he born even just a year earlier, in 1959, this would have been impossible, as he would have been forced to retire in 2027. [...]

Now in charge of the party, Xi announced the start of an anti-corruption campaign whose intensity surprised every observer. In 2015, the anti-corruption campaign targeted a sitting provincial party chief for the first time: Zhou Benshun, the top official in Hebei. Out of more than two dozen provincial party secretaries, Zhou’s replacement was the party secretary of Guizhou, who left his seat to head to Hebei. Thus Chen was promoted from governor to party secretary — a higher-ranking position — in Guizhou, where he would remain in charge for two more years. This was the first, but not the last time Chen would benefit from the anti-corruption campaign.

Chen’s five-year stint in Guizhou coincided with an acceleration of China’s fight against extreme poverty. Guizhou is one of China’s poorest provinces but has a good track record of producing leaders. Hu Jintao, Xi’s predecessor, was Guizhou’s party chief in the 1980s. There, Chen was tasked with tackling one of Xi Jinping’s most important objectives: the eradication of extreme poverty by 2020. In the process, he made some resounding moves, like convincing Apple to build a data center in Guizhou. Under Chen’s leadership in 2016, Guizhou reported the third-fastest growth among Chinese provinces, with a claimed GDP growth rate of 10.5 percent.

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