European Council officials acknowledge that the meaning of the phrase is “not specified.” That allows for a great deal of flexibility when the EU27 leaders meet. Ultimately, it will be a subjective judgment rather than a decision made against a checklist of negotiation goals. The thinking of each leader is likely to be steered by the most powerful Council members — Angela Merkel (assuming the German chancellor wins the upcoming September 24 election as expected) and France’s Emmanuel Macron.
According to U.K. officials, “sufficient progress” won’t necessitate putting an actual figure on Britain’s financial liabilities. On Ireland, it’s likely nothing will be settled until the end of the Brexit process. Meanwhile on citizens’ rights, the role of the European Parliament could become significant, introducing a second political dimension that the U.K. will need to be aware of. [...]
The EU will at least expect the U.K. to set out its proposal for calculating what its obligations are, if not a final figure. Thus far, the U.K. has refused to do so, preferring to critique the proposals put forward by the EU negotiating team. During the third round of Brexit negotiations, it presented a legal analysis of the EU proposals which rejected the entire basis for the bloc’s calculations. It favors of a more à la carte approach to the budget, with the U.K. paying for those parts (so far unspecified) that it wants to be part of. [...]
“The key issue for ‘sufficient progress’ will be money,” said Charles Grant, director of the London-based Centre for European Reform think tank. “The EU and the U.K. will have to agree on a methodology for calculating the amount that the U.K. must pay.” Such a methodology would have to be “detailed enough to reassure the EU … but vague enough so that journalists cannot easily work out a direct figure,” Grant added. EU estimates of this figure range from €65 billion net to €100 billion.
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