In fact, it is possible that Venezuela will become "the next Brazil". Recent developments suggest that the traditional Brazilian elites have regained their ground and are currently taking measures to entrench their rule. And as Nicolas Maduro's government faces instability, it is likely that in the future Venezuelans will wake up to a Brazilian-style oligarchy ruling their country.
In 1958, three major political parties in Venezuela signed a pact called "the Punto Fijo" to "preserve the country's new democratic regime and prevent single party hegemony". Yet the pact transformed Venezuela into an oligarchical paradise and ushered in a period of exclusionary politics in which the political system - and the president's office - was dominated by the elites from the leading political parties.
This plan did work well for almost three decades. Venezuela, which had had no fewer than 25 national constitutions up to 1961, suddenly became a "stable democracy" in the heart of troublesome Cold War South America. The developmental model adopted by its leaders, which was fuelled by the abundant money flowing from oil exports, transformed the Caribbean nation into a relatively successful rentier state. [...]
At the same time, the judicial system is nowhere near reigning in the pervasive corruption. Last week, the National Congress of Brazil absolved President Michel Temer of corruption charges and allowed him to continue his ill-supported mandate.
And Brazilians are stuck with Temer although an overwhelming majority of them want him out (just 5 percent approve of his government). The congress would simply not listen to the wishes of the public that elected it. This is "business as usual" for Brazil's powerful.
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