Ukraine has some genuine achievements to which it can point. Some important reforms have taken place. Macroeconomic fundamentals are good; the value of the currency has stabilized. And Ukraine hasn’t lost the war despite the direct involvement of Russia, whose forces are far more powerful. [...]
The sad reality is that Ukraine’s reforms have stalled, and the window of opportunity is starting to close. None of former president Viktor Yanukovych’s cronies have been prosecuted. Vested interests have blocked the process of building a clean Supreme Court from scratch. Although the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine has succeeded in bringing charges against two notoriously corrupt officials, former parliamentarian Mykola Martynenko and former head of the State Fiscal Service Roman Nasirov, powerful forces are pushing back. The court considering Nasirov’s case refuses to examine all of the evidence. There are growing indications that the director of the anti-corruption bureau could be fired soon, and activists and parliamentarians worry that the bureau’s powers may soon be curtailed. [...]
If things continue as they are, Ukraine’s most talented will leave. More than 70 percent think the country is going in the wrong direction. The reforms that would better people’s lives materially still haven’t materialized, and some that have – such as restructuring of the natural gas market to eliminate corruption – hurt average people badly. As journalist Vitaliy Sych notes, “People are tired, their patience is running out, and many are leaving.” In 2016, nearly 1.3 million Ukrainians received temporary work permits in Poland, and another 116,000 were working there on longer-term permits. Ukrainians already make up the largest ethnic minority in the Czech Republic, and the second-largest in Italy and Portugal.
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