There will be a war within the ruling party. Even if he does not move to do so right away, Kaczynski will want to destroy Duda. He has a significant advantage over the president, who lacks a base of support within PiS and has not built up a core constituency or anything that would enable him to seek a second term independent of PiS support. Kaczynski has no use for an independent president, and would in fact find one cumbersome.
A war within the ruling camp may well end up being suicidal. Civil wars have destroyed Kaczynski more than once. That is what happened in the early ’90s, when Kaczynski engaged in a factional struggle against Lech Walesa, and in 2007, when he declared war on his coalition partner. In both instances, he led to his own self-destruction. This is perhaps the beginning of a third such case. PiS appears to be a monolith from the outside, but the party is rife with internal hatreds. Politicians with access to the security services sureveil their party colleagues more often than members of the opposition. If Duda has indeed started a war, other factions within PiS may be quick to turn against each other. The Polish public sphere is filled with former PiS politicians, foremost among them the “third twin,” Ludwik Dorn, who were politically assasinated by Kaczynski, but in the end Kaczynski would always fall victim himself. [...]
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