1 May 2017

The Guardian: Stick or switch? The way voters are swapping parties suggests a big Tory win

More than half (57%) of voters currently plan to vote the same way as they did in 2015. However what is more interesting is the differences between the parties when it comes to Stickers, Switchers and Undecideds.

Only about half of people who chose Labour, Ukip or the Liberal Democrats in 2015 plan on sticking with that party this time, while the rest have either moved party or are still undecided at this stage.

In sharp contrast, the Conservatives are holding on to a far higher proportion of their vote. More than three-quarters (77%) of their 2015 voters say they will vote for the party again this time around. [...]

Among those that wanted to remain in the EU last June and have since switched who they plan to vote for, 43% have moved to the Liberal Democrats. These remain Switchers are generally coming from Labour and the Greens, with a smaller number moving from the Conservatives. [...]

Labour has seen a dramatic drop in its vote share as it has been losing both remain and leave voters to other parties.

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