The one scenario not discussed was that the US would tear up its own rules, leaving the field open to China to consolidate its dominance of the Asia Pacific and extend its global influence. Nobody even imagined such a far-fetched possibility. Donald Trump’s actions seem to have surprised Beijing as much as they have dismayed America’s allies. Now the challenge for China is how to reap the benefits and contain the inevitable damage.
In terms of international diplomacy, things are going well. It’s hard to imagine Trump quoting Thucydides, or Stephen Hawkins or Herman Hesse, or cramming references to Pandora’s box, the Peace of Westphalia and the sword of Damocles into a 58-minute plea for peace and international cooperation. Such a carefully crafted speech might have been delivered by previous US presidents, since it paid fulsome homage to the core values the US has promoted since 1945. But this was delivered by the general secretary of the Chinese Communist party and president of the China, to an audience at the United Nations in Geneva in January. China’s proposition to the world, Xi said, was to “build a community of shared future for mankind and achieve shared and win-win development”. [...]
There will be few winners in a world of escalating tensions and disruption. China would not have picked this moment for a fight with the US. But if it can consolidate its own economic arrangements in the region and beyond, using its economic muscle to its diplomatic and political advantage while escaping the burden of censure that its internal repression has provoked to date, it will be a huge win for China.
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