Is Donald Trump turning out to be a paper tiger? China’s rulers might be forgiven for thinking so after the US president performed a U-turn on Taiwan, but the shift did not come out of the blue.
Trump’s approach to a range of key international issues has softened significantly since he took office, suggesting a lurch towards conformity and away from disruption. His acceptance of the One China policy, under which Washington does not challenge Beijing’s claim to what it deems a breakaway province, was a stunning reversal, contradicting previous suggestions he would pursue closer ties with Taiwan. [...]
But there have been a string of unmistakeable, Taiwan-like foreign policy shifts on substance, reaching beyond mere questions of tone and style. One is Trump’s revised attitude to expanded Israeli settlements. Another is his pledge to move the US embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv. Israel’s government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, plainly believed Trump’s election meant a green light for unrestricted new building. But in an interview published on Friday by the Israel Hayom newspaper, Trump performed a volte-face, saying settlement construction was “not helpful” in advancing the moribund peace process. Trump also hedged on his embassy pledge. “It’s not an easy decision. It’s been discussed for so many years. No one wants to make this decision,” he said. [...]
Is Trump learning on the job? Or is he just a bully who backs off when he encounters resistance? Given his volatility and unpredictability, it is possible he could reverse himself again on key policies, reverting to his more radical and destabilising ideas. So far, the responsibilities of office, and the complexities of the issues, do seem to be weighing more heavily on Trump’s outlook. Other national leaders and more experienced advisers like Mattis are exerting influence. And Trump, in office, is coming up against a sobering reality that faces all American leaders sooner or later: the limits of presidential power.
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