Trump’s historic unpopularity provides a glimmer of hope to Democrats, who are currently shut out of power in every elected division of the federal government. “Maybe, just maybe,” the thinking goes, “a backlash to Trump’s policies could jump-start a Democratic wave that could flip control of Congress in 2018.” But can poor approval ratings today really help predict an election that’s 21 months away? The answer is a big fat “maybe.” If Trump is this unpopular when the midterms come around, Democrats could be in for a good night. But Trump has already broken the traditional mold of presidential approval, making it hard to say where his popularity will go from here. [...]
Right now, with a Gallup net approval rating of -15 percentage points (40 percent approval, 55 percent disapproval), Trump looks like he could slot in right alongside these underachievers. But there’s a huge caveat: Approval ratings can change a lot in 21 months. Trump could have a successful and productive first two years that win over the support of the country; outside events could cause Americans to rally around their leader as they did in 1962 and 2002. However, Trump is fighting history here, too: Presidents’ net approval ratings almost always go downhill from this point in their terms. [...]
Moreover, the relationship between net approval and midterm losses is far from perfect. Other factors clearly play into midterm election results as well, and in 2018, those factors will work against Democrats: They face a Senate map with few opportunities for gains and a House map skewed red by urban packing and gerrymandering. Although history implies that the Democrats should make gains, these structural barriers could hand that advantage right back to the GOP.
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