It seems that the fall of Aleppo and the ceasefire is a victory for Putin, Erdogan and Assad, at least in the short term. For Assad, simply being at the international negotiating table is a win. But even if he regains control of Syria, he will have to fight a long battle with Islamic State, similar to the ongoing battles with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Putin will use his expanding influence in the Middle East to weaken Western political and economic influence globally. He will use his relationship with Erdogan’s Turkey to weaken NATO and make it irrelevant in a new world order, or disorder, of populist leaders.
Most interestingly, Erdogan will claim to have brought peace to Syria as the Sunni representative of the trio. His bold efforts to change Turkey’s constitution to bring in an executive presidential system during a state of emergency could only be understood in terms of his strong desire to lead the Muslim world. He wants an uninterrupted rule with no critical dissidence or political challenge so that he can channel all his energy into the greater Middle East.
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