So what will the newly liberated Raul look like as a leader? He remains as poorly understood today as at any time in his more than 60 years in public life, in large part because he has existed in the shadow of his more charismatic brother. For decades there have been contradictory images of the dogmatic enforcer and the overly sensitive patsy, but the strongest clue as to what kind of leader Raul would be emerged when he took nominal control of the country after Fidel’s illness in 2006. It has been a challenging decade for Raul who often found that his boldest reform initiatives were undermined by his weakened but still meddlesome brother who demanded until the end fidelity to his decades-long revolution. But the economic and social pressures facing Cuba give Raul little choice except to make the dramatic changes that he has long wanted to enact. [...]
Raul was content to be cast by his brother as a cruel hard liner, “more radical than I,” as Fidel once propounded. In fact, Raul was long an admirer of Stalin and Soviet communism; he enjoyed vacationing in the Soviet Union, and made many friends there in military and security circles. At home, in a booming baritone, and at Fidel’s urging, he periodically delivered jeremiads meant to instill fear in the Cuban populace. He was a dependably stern player in every one of Fidel’s political purges. It is also known that Raul presided over executions during the guerrilla years in Cuba in the 1950s, and another, a gangland-style murder by his own hand, in Mexico. [...]
His own term in power after 2006, with the ailing Fidel monitoring and second-guessing his decisions, provides useful clues to how he will assert his power now that he is unencumbered by the lurking threat of his brother’s interference. Raul set out almost immediately to put some distance between himself and his brother. He pontificated publicly about the need for the regime to implement “conceptual and structural” changes. Breaking with one of Fidel’s shibboleths, he told the Cuban people that the American economic embargo was not the source of all the country’s severe economic problems; the Cubans had caused the problems themselves. During his first few years at the helm Raul often complained about Cuba’s gross inefficiencies in agriculture, and hinted that serious reforms would be implemented. [...]
What else might he have in mind? He will likely now seek to definitively implement wider market-friendly economic reforms and government sector efficiencies, while trying to forge an independent legacy. He may revert to emphasizing major agricultural reforms by empowering farmers to enjoy profits. The number of trades and professions permitted to open small businesses may well be expanded. Larger numbers of government workers may now be let go, although for security reasons that will always be risky.
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