The commonly held view of Boko Haram is that its emergence stemmed primarily from widespread destitution in northeastern Nigeria. But Babagana was a middle-class man with secondary education. Indeed, recent research—conducted by Mercy Corps with support from the Ford Foundation and based on interviews with 47 former members of Boko Haram—found no patterns between recruits and their level or type of education, self-described socioeconomic background, or employment status. What united many recruits was their frustration at a lack of opportunity in an environment of massive inequality, along with their communities’ anger toward poor governance. [...]
But now, having failed to prove itself to be any better than the government it decries, Boko Haram is suffering from the same discontent that brought it to power. A strong, locally grown counternarrative about its corruption and hypocrisy has damaged its reputation, possibly beyond repair. The Nigerian government must seize this window of opportunity, given Boko Haram’s unpopularity and recent military setbacks, to regain—or in some cases, gain for the first time—the people’s trust in the Nigerian state and to establish a stronger foundation for governance and long-term development. [...]
Still, whereas poverty has clearly contributed to Boko Haram’s rise, government and civil society actors should avoid overemphasizing its role. Available data generally suggest that Borno State, the epicenter of the Boko Haram movement, had better socioeconomic indicators than many other states in northern and central Nigeria before the current insurgency. Indeed, a 2010 survey by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics found the absolute poverty rate in Borno to be lower than in the other 12 states that make up the northeast and northwest geopolitical zones. Although neighboring Yobe State, another major theater of the Boko Haram conflict, appears to have suffered greater levels of economic deprivation, its inhabitants were no worse off than those living in Sokoto, Kebbi, or Katsina, which have, for the most part, been left untouched by Islamist violence.
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