But the one thing that’s almost certainly safe? Same-sex marriage rights. Whatever nasty bigot Trump invariably nominates to the court will almost certainly oppose gay rights, but he won’t really be able to reverse the decision in Obergefell v. Hodges, the 2015 decision that legalized same-sex marriage. [...]
For one thing, simply replacing Scalia with another right-wing judge isn’t enough to tip the court against gay rights. Scalia was alive for the Obergefell decision and voted against it. But Justice Anthony Kennedy, a conservative on many issues, broke for gay rights on this decision. That balance will not change.
There’s always a chance that one of the more liberal justices, like Ruth Bader Ginsburg (who is 83 years old) or Stephen Breyer (who is 78), retires or passes away. If that happens, Trump and his Republican Congress will be able to appoint another conservative and tip the court definitively against gay rights. That might be a problem with other cases, but it almost certainly won’t mean that conservatives will be able to undermine legal gay marriage.
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