Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk are both from the center-right, and each unequivocally supports the status quo. Juncker has advocated for “stability,” and Tusk endorsed Schulz during a debate in Germany earlier this month. “For me Martin Schulz is the best person to guarantee that the ‘grand coalition’ [between the center-right European People’s Party and the S&D] can be the basis for a rational and responsible majority in the European Parliament,” he said. “We need strong leadership, and I am sure that Martin Schulz is currently the best.”
Support for the current power-sharing arrangement comes from further afield, too. Spain’s center-right Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy made a clear link between a third Schulz presidency and the renewal of Tusk’s mandate in mid-2017, telling reporters that there was currently “reasonable equilibrium within the European institutions” before flying home from last week’s EU summit in Brussels. [...]
For Schulz, leaving Brussels would also certainly mean returning to Germany to lose an election. A recent opinion poll puts support for the SPD at 22 percent, far behind Merkel’s conservatives, who are at 35 percent. But there could be advantages to the move. If the SPD secured enough votes to remain in a coalition with Merkel, Schulz could be sure of a prestigious cabinet post, such as the foreign ministry. Otherwise, he could become the leader of the opposition — or even have a stab at becoming chancellor by forming a so-called Red-Red-Green coalition with the far-left parties, the Greens and The Left.
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