Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, or “M-V”, is not exactly a cross-section of German society. Like all five of the “new federal states,” M-V’s economy was decimated by the collapse of East German industry in the early 1990s, and its tourism- and service-economy-based recovery has been modest.
Today the state has some of the highest poverty rates in the country while also being the least densely populated; the 2 percent of the population that lives in M-V is also overwhelmingly German (only 4 percent are categorized as being of foreign origin). Although net migration into the state crept above zero in 2013 and has remained there since, many of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s smaller municipalities, particularly along the Polish border where the AfD won a plurality of votes in several districts, face major economic decline and dwindling populations.
These socio-economic conditions are reflected in a breakdown of the election results conducted by Spiegel Online. AfD voters were statistically more likely to be men over thirty-five with low to moderate levels of education — women, eighteen to twenty-four year-olds, and the highly educated voted for the AfD in relatively low numbers — and more likely to live in the poorer and more isolated parts of the state.
This statistical differentiation, however, is relative. Overall, the AfD enjoyed spectacular gains across all social groups and did particularly well among the traditional base of the Left, receiving a plurality of votes from workers, the unemployed, and small business owners. Only white-collar employees and civil servants voted for the AfD in numbers significantly below average.
Even more alarming is the fact that the party mobilized over fifty thousand voters who sat out the previous election, raising total participation to over 60 percent, and also attracted voters from the other political parties in relatively equal numbers — demonstrating that the party has become the main vehicle for protest votes across broad sections of society.
When asked, only 25 percent of AfD voters reported actual support for the party, whereas 66 percent described their vote as a means of punishing the mainstream parties. That said, their primary reason for doing so is clear: the majority, 52 percent, were most concerned about “refugees,” in contrast to the majority of voters in M-V overall, of whom 53 percent identified “social justice” as their top priority.
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