FiveThirtyEight: Independent Voters Are Overrated

Although the results differ from poll to poll, a clear pattern emerges: Trump does better with independents than he does with the electorate at large. Clinton is still winning overall because she is doing better with Democrats than Trump is with Republicans.

Clinton leads among Democrats by an average of 81 percentage points, while Trump is ahead among Republicans by 76 points. That’s not a huge difference, but it’s meaningful. Trump has had problems with the GOP base since the primary season. Meanwhile, Clinton was cleaning up with self-identified Democratsduring the Democratic primaries, even as Bernie Sanders was doing well with independent voters. It’s also possible that Trump’s association with the Republican Party has caused some traditional Republican voters to call themselves independents, which makes the pool of independent voters more conservative leaning.

Indeed, many self-identified independents are not the moderate, persuadable swing voters they are often portrayed to be. As Amy Walter from the Cook Political Report has pointed out, independents usually lean towards one party or the other, even as they claim a nonpartisan label. Some lean Democratic or GOP. As Walter discussed, true independents only make up about 10 percent of all voters. Further, voters who typically favor the GOP make up a larger percentage of self-identified independents than they do of voters overall, which can make independents a Republican-leaning group relative to the electorate. In fact, the self-identified independents who consistently favor one party are often more ideologically extreme than those who identify with either party. That is, there is no reason to believe that independents should necessarily reflect the will of the overall electorate. [...]

In fact, here’s an interesting historical tidbit: In the four elections decided by less than 5 points since 1976, the candidate who won independents lost the national popular vote every time. That includes Mitt Romney in 2012, who many Republicans argued would win because he was leading with independents. Less remembered is John Kerry’s loss in 2004; he had less support among self-identified Democrats than Bush did among self-identified Republicans and so lost the election despite edging out Bush among independents.

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