The primary threat to the dominance of Christianity in Australia is not from Islam, or from Buddhism, or Judaism, or any other religion. It comes from those having no religion at all.
It comes, increasingly, from the irrelevancy of the church to most of our lives. By 2050, atheists will be part of the second largest religious group, those with no affiliation, along with agnostics and others of no faith.
According to last year's Future of World Religions report by the Pew Research Centre, they will be on the way to a majority. About two-thirds of Australians identify with Christianity, with those without religion accounting for a quarter, meaning most Australians are one or the other – 91 per cent. [...]
It will be one of a handful of Western countries to lose an existing Christian majority, along with New Zealand, Britain, France and the Netherlands. Unlike the West, the world as a whole will become relatively more religious, not less. Islam will have almost as many followers as Christianity, possibly for the first time in history.
The projected growth in Islam is largely due to demographics – its main populations have much higher birth rates than Christians. The global share of those with no religion will decline, hurt especially by China's low birth rates. Few people convert from one religion to another, but of those who do change their faith, by far the greatest movement will not be converts to Islam. They will be those leaving Christianity and choosing to have no faith at all, a movement concentrated in the West.
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