The unarmed monitoring mission from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) logs hundreds of explosions a day. It is not full-blown war, but it is not much of a ceasefire, either. [...]
The Russian president accused Kiev of embracing “tactics of terror” and said there was little point in four-way negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France, planned for the sidelines of the upcoming G20 summit in China. This led many to suspect that a new Russian offensive could be on the way, possibly with the aim of opening up a land bridge between Russia and Crimea. [...]
Up to now, Russia has used a mixture of loosely directed volunteers, military advisers and occasional injections of regular troops at key moments, while denying it has ever had a major military presence in east Ukraine. But with Ukraine’s army improving over the past two years, a push for further territory would probably require a full-scale, overt Russian invasion that would irrevocably damage relations with the west. [...]
Moscow is keen for a settlement that would see much of the separatist infrastructure legalised, giving it de facto control over part of Ukraine without having to fund it. In Kiev, attitudes have hardened against any compromise with the “terrorists” in the east. Amid the deadlock, many in Kiev still worry about the possibility of Russia opting for full-scale war. “It doesn’t seem logical but then the things they do often don’t,” said the Ukrainian official.
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