Removing that many governors is a bit odd. Replacing them with bodyguards is very odd. Then removing someone like Ivanov is extremely odd. [...]
I have already written about how Russia’s economy has been in free-fall since oil prices dropped. Russia recently released its Q2 GDP estimate that showed a slowing in economic contraction. That is good news, in a way.
The second problem is Putin’s failure in Ukraine. The West sees him as the aggressor, and he was. Yet, the tale began with Western-backed protesters ousting a pro-Russian government and replacing it with a pro-Western one. [...]
Further, Putin would replace former key players with people who never dreamed of attaining such a high rank. They know that if anything happened to Putin, they would be return to the cold.
That explains the firings and replacements. I think that Putin knows there is a threat but is uncertain of its origin. His actions are a way to declare that he knows more than he actually does. [...]
The coup in Turkey—and Erdoğan’s apology for the downing of a Russian jet—opened the door for him. A strategic alliance with Turkey would disrupt the American containment policy and allow Russian influence in the Middle East to surge.
Putin needs to convince Erdoğan to enter into an alliance. As a down payment, he offered Armenia’s national interests. I doubt that Erdoğan is buying, but he will use it to extract concessions from the Americans.
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