Exactly who orchestrated the coup remains unclear. And, as usual in Turkey, conspiracy theories abound. While the government points the finger at the Pennsylvania-based Islamic cleric Fetullah Gülen, whom Erdoğan accused of attempting to oust him with a corruption scandal in December 2013, others believe the president himself stage-managed it all to consolidate his power by quashing the military for good.
According to this theory, Erdoğan now has a cast-iron excuse for future authoritarianism, having established himself as the country’s undisputed guardian of popular rule – after all, the coup failed after his supporters responded to his call to take to the streets. I don’t share this view. A better theory is that Friday was a last-ditch attempt by factions of the army desperate to remove Erdoğan before he pushed forward plans to change the constitution to establish an executive presidency for himself, and – more urgently – to prevent the purge of army personnel that was probably in the works before this weekend.
What is interesting is the complete lack of public support for the attempt. Turkey has a long-established history of coups, which have occurred punctually almost every decade (1960, 1971, 1980 – plus 1997’s “postmodern” coup). Staunchly secular nationalists who like the idea of militarily safeguarding the country from ideological leaders may have been expected to support the coup. And yet there was no evidence of that, despite heartfelt opposition to Erdoğan’s 13-year rule among about 50% of the population, and growing desperation at the lack of mainstream opposition in Turkish politics.
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