2 June 2016

The New York Times: Drawing Lessons From the Scottish Referendum as E.U. Vote Nears

And he has some lessons from the Scottish experience to impart.

First, he said, “psychology matters more than psephology” — ignore the polls, at least until the very end. Both telephone and internet polls are flawed when assessing support for referendums, because they are so rare, and what matters will be “the overriding question in people’s minds as they vote.” [...]

The Remain side must speak to British patriotism and the benefits of the European Union, not just spout statistics. It is quite possible, as he understood at some point during the Scottish campaign, “to win the argument but lose the audience.” [...]

“Referendums have an afterlife,” he said. “This will not settle it for a generation,” contrary to what Prime Minister David Cameron has said, any more than the Scottish referendum has settled the issue of independence.

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