30 June 2016

The Guardian: UK voted for Brexit – but is there a way back?

The British government has not yet said how parliament should implement the decision to leave. It is not clear, for instance, if and what laws would have to be passed to put the referendum decision to leave the EU into effect.

At present, there is not a majority for Britain to leave the EU in either the House of Commons or the House of Lords. Indeed, given a free vote, the unelected Lords would probably reject Brexit by a margin of six to one. [...]

More plausibly, the Commons might set conditions on the renegotiation, including access to the single market, membership of the European Free Trade Association or the preservation of the union with Scotland. The opportunities to filibuster and delay are innumerable. It is, for instance, disputed whether triggering article 50 requires the authority of parliament. Most legal opinion suggests not, but political necessity may require the endorsement of parliament. [...]

All these scenarios, however, are inherently speculative – and require an accumulator bet coming good – but if you think it is not being discussed in Whitehall and Westminster, you are mistaken.

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